This analysis is a Pre-Mortem—a strategic technique where we assume a future project (or, in this case, a market trend) has already failed, and then work backward from that point of collapse to identify the causes. The goal is to gain “prospective hindsight” to spot the factors that will seem obvious in retrospect. The Paradox:…
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All right, so the odds are looking a bit elevated that the government might shut down. At this moment, betting markets are placing an 82% chance of the government shutting down: And because of that, investors are a little bit worried about how that might affect the stock market. So let’s have a look. What…
DetailsI’m thrilled to announce an exciting expansion of the services I offer to help you achieve comprehensive financial well-being. In addition to expert investment portfolio management and meticulous retirement planning, I am now introducing Estate Planning Services, focusing specifically on the creation of trusts! For years, my priority has been to help you build and…
DetailsAre you and your spouse homeowners in California? The name on your deed might seem like a small detail, but it could have massive tax implications. For married couples in California, the difference between two simple acronyms—JTWROS and CPWROS—could cost your family a fortune in taxes. Many couples title their homes as “Joint Tenancy with…
DetailsI had the honor of going to JPMorgan’s headquarters in New York City and having breakfast with Andrew Norelli this past week. He is one of the most brilliant bond portfolio managers in the country, and he runs the $4 billion fund, the JPMorgan Income ETF (symbol JPIE). We talked about monetary policy, bond yields,…
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